This document aims to provide a best guess at the possible bad endings facing us, and when. It is still very much work in progress.
The tree structure is so that you can immediately see "when it might get bad"; expansion makes it so that you can see the "why it might get bad" and "what might change that"
This document is collaborative: accepting comments; contact us at our contact info if you're interested
The timelines suggest that the code mandating transgender exclusion from toilets will not become statutory until January. Some entities already proactively adopt trans-exclusive policies; however EHRC has conceded that workplaces don't need to be exclusionary if they have single-stall toilets. A realistic scenario is that even if trans-exclusionary guidances get weakened trans-exclusionary policies will still be widespread due to "folk understanding" of the law that isn't there.
TODO: update to include events 17th-26th June.
Equality Act terms "woman" and "man" fixed to birth sex; trans women treated as male and trans men as female for Equality-Act purposes; binding in GB, persuasive in NI.
The UKSC in For Women Scotland Ltd v Scottish Ministers held that "sex" in the Act means "biological sex", GRC. Single-sex service rules must therefore be applied by birth sex, while trans people remain protected under "gender reassignment".
Minister for Women & Equalities press release, 16 Apr 2025 welcomed the "clarity for providers".
Scottish Government statement, 16 Apr 2025 accepted the ruling and promised to work with the EHRC.
EHRC chair Kishwer Falkner said the decision ends "lack of clarity" and issued interim guidance. EHRC interim guidance
The Equality and Human Rights Commission issues interim guidance advising that trans women "should not be permitted" in women’s toilets, and trans men barred from men’s.
UK Government (civil service), 27 Apr 2025
Financial Conduct Authority, mid-June 2025
NHS Confederation, early June 2025 (to come into force once EHRC issues its code of practice)
UK Parliamentary Estate (House of Commons) - initially did not change self-id policy, but "apologised" on 15th June after an "incident" when a trans woman used women's toilets. Currently "awaiting EHRC's full guidance"
Download Festival 2025 - tried to follow EHRC's guidance on 27th May, withdraw on 28th May after backlash
Northern Ireland Assembly (Stormont)
Open letter signatories - many leaders of cultural institutions (e.g. Watershed, Bristol Old Vic, Bristol Beacon, Welsh National Opera, etc.) openly rejecting the EHRC’s update as unworkable, stating that “they are unable and unwilling to police the gender of people using our toilets".
Lush Cosmetics - leaning very strongly in the pro-trans direction at least publicly, terminating relationship with Download festival over guidance
Initially set for 2 weeks, the window was stretched to 6 weeks after pressure.
Sarah Owen MP – chair, Commons Women & Equalities Committee; her 7 May letter told Baroness Falkner that "at least six weeks ... would be more appropriate" and asked how the EHRC would "proactively seek input from charities, disability groups, businesses, health providers and local authorities".
Lord Alton of Liverpool – chair, Joint Committee on Human Rights; his 1 May letter queried whether two weeks gave "sufficient time and scope for organisations to engage" and why the EHRC would not take legal evidence.
Trans advocacy groups signalled pre-action moves if the window stayed at two weeks, helping prompt the U-turn. Personnel Today
Refuge, Mind, Samaritans, Solace Women’s Aid, Women in Prison, Association of Mental Health Providers, Mental Health UK – warned that a rushed process could be procedurally unlawful and leave frontline services “in limbo”. Guardian, 13 Jun 2025
Liberty – 30 May pre-action letter calling six weeks *“so unfair as to be unlawful”* and demanding 12 weeks.
Good Law Project – 16 May letter before action saying the EHRC’s interim update is “wrong in law” and vowing to challenge any final Code embedding the same stance.
High Court outcome (6 Jun) – Swift J refused an interim order, holding *“there is no 12-week rule”* though noting fairness concerns; Liberty has appealed. Local Government Lawyer, 6 Jun 2025
Stonewall 9 Jun “How to respond effectively” tool-kits sent to its 900-member Diversity Champions network.
TransActual UK + Scottish Trans + Mermaids – joint #SpeakUpForTransRights guide walking supporters through the consultation’s free-text boxes.
Sex Matters – gender-critical template answers and an “email-your-MP” action (banner *“Respond now – keep single-sex services”*). Sex Matters
For Women Scotland and allies – newsletters urging submissions and donations to a litigation fund, bolstered by JK Rowling’s Women’s Fund, 26 May 2025.
Claim: Front-line service charities (Refuge, Mind, etc.) run nationwide services; ministers lean on their operational evidence, so their warning that the draft could force unlawful practice necessitates a substantive EHRC reply. Guardian
Claim: Credible litigation threats (Liberty, GLP) create real risk that any Code adopted after an inadequate process will be quashed; courts have previously voided even *eight-week* consultations affecting vulnerable groups. Liberty Swift J ruling
TODO: apply human review to the LLM-generated summary below.
EHRC aims to hand ministers a final Code by end-July; draft remains birth-sex-based.
Equality Act 2010 §14 obliges the EHRC to send the draft to the Secretary of State. Falkner told MPs on 11 Jun 2025 the hand-over would be “by the end of July”. Oral evidence to WESC, 11 Jun 2025 Withers LLP briefing, 29 May 2025 confirms the target and notes possible delays from heavy response volume.
May draft rewrites Chapter 13 to define sex as recorded at birth; GRCs “do not change legal sex”. Dentons commentary, 5 Jun 2025 New examples on pregnancy (trans men) and perception-based discrimination were added.
EHRC officials told MPs “the Code will stay birth-sex-based” given the Supreme Court ruling. Oral evidence to WESC, 11 Jun 2025
Stonewall, Scottish Trans, Liberty and the Good Law Project have all threatened or prepared JR if the final Code retains the stance. Liberty pre-action letter, 31 May 2025 Good Law Project LBA, 16 May 2025
Equality Act §14 sets the statutory-code procedure. Withers LLP briefing on consultation & timetable. Withers LLP
TODO: apply human review to the LLM-generated summary below.
Snapshot: Government to lay the Code after summer recess; affirmative SI needs yes/no approval by both Houses.
Draft laid as an affirmative SI; neither House can amend, only approve or reject. Parliamentary procedure explainer
Government majority expected to pass the SI quickly; ministers want approval before year-end. Hansford analysis, 8 Jun 2025
Commons has not rejected an affirmative SI since 1978; Lords only four times since 2000. HoC Library briefing SN06509
Statutory approval will trigger policy changes across public bodies; trans users will be affected as organisations implement the birth-sex-based standards.
TODO: apply human review to the LLM-generated summary below.
Snapshot: If both Houses approve by Dec 2025, the Code starts 28 days later – targeting Jan 2026.
Standard 21–28-day gap between approval and commencement. Institute for Government explainer Falkner projected statutory status “within seven or eight months” of June 2025. Oral evidence to WESC, 11 Jun 2025
Courts must “take into account” the Code (Equality Act s.15). Providers following it gain a safe-harbour defence; policies at odds risk litigation.
Trans-rights groups predict exclusion harms and may litigate; gender-critical groups will press for strict enforcement. Large employers such as the NHS Confederation say they will align facilities once the Code is live. NHS Confederation statement, 12 Jun 2025
Code applies only to GB, but Equality Commission NI is expected to issue aligned guidance. Equality Commission NI statement, 18 Apr 2025
The process will probably introduce more gatekeeping, however the impacts of that are already felt as clinics anticipate and adjust in advance.
TODO: summarise the likely impacts on pre-hrt, NHS, NHS-private shared care, full private, DIY.
Reports of cases of GPs withdrawing HRT from previously stable patients, citing lack of specialist guidance.
Likely to be in anticipation of the review findings, as well as position statements,
Even if the position statements or the anticipated specifications themselves are "fine" in theory, some GPs are overinterpreting them in favour of not prescribing, while others might be a lot more eager to prescribe. Local groups might already be compiling that data, and if not they should!
Dr David Levy's team inspecting all NHS adult gender identity clinics; survey data from patients and staff being analyzed; no public report yet available.
"Medical Director of Lancashire & South Cumbria Integrated Care Board". Stated reason for choosing his team is independence from transgender care; NHS refuses to answer in more detail.
Initially the survey results and gender clinic reports were expected to be public by March 2025, but instead they decided to publish the findings as a single report; currently expected "in the summer" 1 2.
Technically just NHS Gender Dysphoria Clinics. The reports will however inform the adult service specification. Moreover, GPs already use the NHS guidelines as a reference for whether to prescribe (example document).
NHS England plans to release individual “report cards” for each adult Gender Dysphoria Clinic, the national survey analysis and a single synthesis report in early-to-mid July
The stated Key Lines of Inquiry are varied, but the review is most likely going to highlight cases of "insufficient gatekeeping", given what already is floating around in the media.
* "widespread rushed consent and pressure to prescribe hormones by the second visit", as by the May 2024 Cass letter
* particular concern for 18- to 25-year-olds and neurodivergent patients (TODO: insert sources)
Can expect focus on 18-25s as well as neurodivergence, increasing the gatekeeping for those groups further.
There seems to be more concern about FtMs than MtFs around medical side. (more: TODO)
The specification provides a framework that both NHS and licenced private providers have to comply with. This specification is specifically for non-surgical services, the surgical one is separate.
Assumes that the Levy review will finish early-to-mid summer; a draft specification can usually be expect for around a month after that.
Additional gatekeeping for 18-25s and neurodivergence?
Bridging prescriptions tightening?
Higher requirements on private clinics, raising the cost?
The consultation for the aforementioned specification.
The time after August holidays is a common consultation window (good citation needed)
TODO
NHS England publishing final reform package: (a) service specification for adult gender dysphoria services (b) national hormone therapy policy, (c) workforce/implementation plan with clinic expansion targets and training initiatives. Changes effective Q1 2026.
The rulebook: Sets care pathway steps, referral criteria, assessment process, treatment options, discharge criteria, GP cooperation requirements.
Hormone policy guides all UK prescribers via professional standards.
Specifically about operation of NHS gender clinics.
The 2026/27 NHS Standard Contract pack will be issued in February 2026 and come into force on 1 April 2026. After that, the spec becomes contractual: NHS clinics must comply; private clinics risk CQC enforcement if they don’t.